Analysis by Alexandre MARIE, Head of Markets at Vivescia Group
For the third time in its history, the French wheat harvest has fallen to an extremely low level: the autumn rains have taken their toll, with the area under cultivation shrinking by nearly 10% compared to the 2019 harvest. The very wet fall—with locally equivalent to a year and a half’s worth of rainfall falling on stunted crops—severely hampered root development. The mild winter allowed aphids and other pests to put pressure on the crops. Ultimately, it was a very dry spring—nearly a month and a half without rain—that ultimately undermined yields. Fortunately, the cooler and slightly wetter month of June helped salvage the situation. French wheat production is estimated at around 29 million tons (further downward revisions to acreage by Agreste are expected, based on CAP declarations). For reference, the five-year average stands at 35.6 million tons.
Yields vary widely, ranging from half to triple the average! In western France, south of the Seine, yields are often 15% to 25% below average. The Centre region is no exception, with yields nearly 10% to 15% below average. The Central-East region follows this trend as well, though yields are slightly better as one moves toward the plains of Aube or northern Burgundy. One must cross the Seine and the Marne to find yields close to the five-year averages. The northern Paris basin, Normandy, the chalky Champagne region, and the Ardennes are close to the averages, though once again with a dramatic standard deviation: ranging from 30 to 110 q/ha, for example, in the Marne.
The dry spring and the delayed ripening in June helped preserve the grapes’ health and resulted in relatively high specific gravities this year. Protein content is also variable, influenced by farming practices (winter leaching due to rain) and final yields, ranging from 10% to 13% in soft bread wheat. Initial flour tests indicate good dough extensibility thanks to a favorable protein-to-lignin ratio. Baking strength and Hagberg indices are well preserved.
The quality of French wheat and the grain handling efforts of storage agencies should make it possible to meet demand. Supply, which is down by a quarter compared to normal levels, will need to be secured through close cooperation with the industry, as import demand from China remains strong. Of the 29–30 million tons produced, half is needed for domestic demand, with the remainder destined for intra-EU exports and exports to third countries. While demand from Europe is expected to be low—with excellent production in the Iberian Peninsula, average in Italy, and excellent in the Baltic region—exports to the Maghreb will still need to be rationed. For now, sustained demand from China—which is bolstering port premiums and decoupling the market from our preferred destinations—allows for the rationing of French wheat sales. This year, we will need to rely on Argentine wheat to meet the Maghreb’s needs in the second half of the season, while Germany and the Baltic region are establishing themselves as suppliers to Algeria in the early months.
The 2020 harvest is of good baking quality
We are seeing the dough smooth out nicely, and more quickly than in the previous harvest. Kneading times may therefore need to be adjusted to prevent over-kneading. Overall, the wheat is more pliable during shaping and less elastic. Fermentation activity in the dough is higher with the new wheat varieties. We will therefore need to be vigilant to limit excessive fermentation. The loaves produced after baking are very attractive.
The work of our experts, in partnership with cooperatives in selecting the best varieties, has allowed us, so far, to guarantee excellent-quality flours and to be optimistic about this new harvest. We are gradually incorporating these new wheat varieties into our recipes to ensure the consistency of our flours and thus guarantee the best results for our customers.
Adrien Louveau, Product Innovation Development Project Manager
